6 hours ago, BruceMcF said:
For the core markets for the CX16p and CX16e, there isn't going to be any appreciable cannibalization. For the more fringe markets, as you describe above there might be some, but I think it is less than you are describing above, and as implied by what you describe above, what cannibalization there might be can be avoided by simply launching the crowdfunding campaigns in parallel.
The only problem is that we may have something of an externality akin to the "New Coke Problem".
The CX16 has been actively touted (and yes, promoted) in the form of its core architecture (banked RAM, VERA working the way VERA docs say VERA works) for quite a long time. And not just with the glossy mock ups or purely 'paper spec.' No, there's been detailed docs with a programmer's reference guide for both the system and the VERA with revision histories going back to 2019. There's a frequently updated emulator that has had 38 releases (and with r39, we must assume, being close to ready). The X16 emulator (just from the time this site came into being and started tracking its downloads ( and not counting any other download locations or people who built their own from the repo) has something approach 9000 downloads.
There's an ecosystem of software going back years. There are literally HOURS of tutorial videos (and I'm just counting hours of stuff where the creator walked through code that teaches people about VERA according to the current official VERA documents and not the alternative VERA of the X8.
There are folks who are working on programming languages (e.g., PROG8), compilers, environments, text editors, other dev tools and plenty of demos games. As I look at the listings, it appears to me that most of those among the top downloads (especially with the vast majority being written in assembly, C, or other non-BASIC langauges etc., ) will currently use RAM banks, VRAM access through the published data ports specifications, etc. Heck, even many of the BASIC programs are specific to the X16 and use banks, the YM chip (there's one that demos a hell of a good song and sounds amazing on the X16 emulator), sprites, tiles and PSG stuff.
Now personally, I didn't have any big problem with New Coke versus Coke "Classic", but market sentiment is not necessarily rational. There's a potential for something akin to a sunk opportunity cost value that people will subconsciously assign to their own time that has been spent working up stuff on the X16 platform, and there may be sour grapes if there's release of a drastically altered version and any questions at all on the timeframe for the 'original' conception of the project to see a real release. There's also the thing that's caused 8BitGuy so much obvious frustration these last many months... the hurdles and pitfalls they've run into getting the X16 protos to a release point without timing issues, board issues, etc., and that 'uncertainty and doubt' can also have an effect. I don't blame him, he's had a string of total rocking successes with Planet X series of games, PETSCI Robots and pretty good channel growth. But those gremlins that the team is having to battle,.. could also cause some question marks about the timing and assuredness of the X16 release even if (as I agree they should) the Kickstarter goes up tomorrow. I can't quantify the impact of any of this, and maybe it won't alter things things at all on balance. (After all, geeky enthusiasm is an externality in the other direction).
Some of these concerns can be at least partially ameliorated with release of some specific details about the X8 nuts and bolts -- especially the specifics in a level of detail similar to what we have for VERA now -- regarding how that 256 byte window works, and what the story is with the address range from $A000 to $BFFF on the X8. Info on whether there's RAM that can be accessed under the ROMs, for example. And finally, getting that X8 emulator in people's hands will let those interested take a shot at porting over their existing X16 programs to the X8. Those smarter than I have mentioned potential upsides to the 256 byte window for VRAM access depending on the setup and details of moving the window, so having the emulator in folks' hands will cancel out the uncertainty factor.
Bottom line, as a practical matter I'm not sure the 'parallel' crowd-fund launch would really behave like a parallel launch of product tiers unless, on the one side there's video of a functioning X16 with the keyboard and SD card timing issues squashed , AND on the other side, there's been some hands-on access to the emulator and detailed specs for the X8 so that it can be judged according to the same level of immersion the X16 platform enjoys even now at this moment.